Opinion | eThekwini will be ANC-MKP-IFP battleground in November poll

By Rebone Tau

The first local government elections were held on 1 November 1995 in most parts of the country, while some were held between May and June 1996 in KwaZulu-Natal and parts of the Western Cape.

It was reported that the reason for the delay in these two provinces was because of the demarcation process.

In KwaZulu-Natal, it was because the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) had a strong hold in the province, and it was alleged that political violence played a role in delaying the elections.

There were also disputes over municipal boundaries and the role of traditional leaders.

In the Western Cape, there were disputes over demarcation as it was the stronghold of the National Party.

Both provinces were politically highly contested at the time.

On 29 May 1996, the Western Cape was able to hold its local government elections, while KwaZulu-Natal held its elections on 26 June 1996.

Looking back at that period, it seems history may repeat itself in KwaZulu-Natal as the upcoming local government elections are likely to be highly contested.

Today, KwaZulu-Natal has three major political players competing for dominance: the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), the African National Congress (ANC) and the newly formed uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP).

While noting that MKP performed well in the 2024 elections, much of that success can be attributed to former President Jacob Zuma, who continues to enjoy a solid support base in KwaZulu-Natal.

Jacob Zuma played a crucial role in the peace talks between the Inkatha Freedom Party and the African National Congress during the early 1990s. At the time, he was the national chairperson of the ANC and later served in the provincial government as MEC for Economic Affairs and Tourism from 1994 until 1999, when he was appointed Deputy President of the Republic of South Africa.

It is also important to note that after Zuma became President of the ANC in 2007, the party’s support in KwaZulu-Natal increased significantly.

In the 2009 general elections, the ANC secured 62.95% of the vote in the province.

In comparison, Zuma was able to help the uMkhonto weSizwe Party secure 45.35% of the vote in KwaZulu-Natal during the 2024 elections, demonstrating the extent of his influence and support in the province.

The political landscape in KwaZulu-Natal has changed significantly over the years.

The July unrest of 2021 started in KwaZulu-Natal before spreading to other parts of the country, including Gauteng. Just months later, on 1 November 2021, local government elections were held. Those elections marked a significant shift for the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal. The party lost support in several municipalities, while the Inkatha Freedom Party made significant gains, particularly in the northern parts of the province. This resulted in several coalition governments being formed across municipalities. As South Africa heads towards the next local government elections, the uMkhonto weSizwe Party will be contesting for the first time at the local government level, and it is clear that the party continues to enjoy strong support in KwaZulu-Natal.

Interestingly, at a political level, it is the Democratic Alliance (DA) that has recently held its provincial conference and elected new leaders with a fresh mandate.

Meanwhile, the uMkhonto weSizwe Party, the African National Congress and the Inkatha Freedom Party have not yet held their provincial conferences and are unlikely to do so before the local government elections.

There is only one metropolitan municipality in KwaZulu-Natal, and that is eThekwini.

The ANC lost its outright majority in the municipality during the 2021 local government elections when it secured 42.1% of the vote.

Since then, the municipality has been governed through a coalition arrangement. One can argue that eThekwini has had one of the most stable coalition governments among the metropolitan municipalities in South Africa. Unlike other metros that have experienced frequent changes in leadership, there has never been a mayor from another political party besides the ANC since 2021.

Mxolisi Kaunda became mayor in 2021 and was later replaced by Cyril Xaba in 2024 after being redeployed to the National Assembly as a Member of Parliament.

The Democratic Alliance emerged as the second-largest party in the municipality with 25.9% of the vote, while the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) secured 10.5%. However, the political dynamics in eThekwini changed significantly during the 2024 national and provincial elections. The uMkhonto weSizwe Party performed exceptionally well in the municipality, making it a major threat to most political parties heading into the local government elections.

It is becoming increasingly clear that there is unlikely to be an outright winner in eThekwini.

The real question is which political party will secure the highest level of support and place itself in the strongest position to negotiate and form a coalition government.

I also think that the uMkhonto weSizwe Party has learned important lessons from how it handled negotiations following the 2024 elections in KwaZulu-Natal.

Coalition politics requires political maturity, strategic thinking and an understanding that compromise is often necessary to achieve long-term objectives.

All eyes are therefore going to be on eThekwini municipality to see which political parties emerge as the strongest contenders.

This is the municipality that is home to the largest and busiest container port in Africa. It serves as the key gateway for imports into Gauteng and the broader SADC region. When we look at it from an economic development perspective, eThekwini has the strongest overall port-led growth potential because Durban combines logistics, manufacturing, tourism, finance and population scale in a way that no other South African city currently does. However, what the municipality needs is a mayor who has a vision and puts the people first. Such leadership has the potential to create an environment that supports economic growth and creates more jobs for the people of eThekwini.

The government alone will never be able to create jobs. What the government can do is create a conducive environment for business to thrive and encourage more investors to view eThekwini as an attractive investment destination. Investors are more likely to invest in cities where infrastructure works, where governance is stable and where there is a clear vision for economic development.

The municipality also enjoys one major advantage that many cities in South Africa do not have: its weather. Durban’s climate makes it an attractive destination throughout the year and provides opportunities to grow tourism and attract both local and international visitors.

The next mayor of eThekwini will need to hit the ground running after 4 November.

Service delivery must be placed high on the agenda from day one. Residents want practical solutions to the challenges they face daily. There is an urgent need to address the ongoing water crisis affecting many communities. Roads and transport infrastructure require significant investment and maintenance. The electricity infrastructure crisis also requires immediate attention if the municipality wants to attract investment and support economic growth.

There is also a need for a leader who understands the importance of tourism and how much revenue it can generate for the city. Tourism has the potential to create jobs, support local businesses and contribute significantly to municipal revenue. More importantly, local communities must benefit from tourism growth. Economic opportunities should not only benefit large businesses but should also create opportunities for small businesses, township enterprises and local entrepreneurs.

The future of eThekwini will not be determined only by which political party wins the election. It will be determined by whether the next administration is capable of providing effective leadership, restoring service delivery and unlocking the municipality’s enormous economic potential.

The city already has many of the ingredients required for success. What it needs now is leadership with a vision, leadership that puts the people first and leadership that understands the importance of economic growth, investment and service delivery. Whoever leads eThekwini after 4 November will inherit not only challenges but also one of the greatest economic opportunities in South Africa.

Rebone Tau is a political commentator and author of The Rise and Fall of the ANCYL. She is a Research Fellow at the Institute for Pan-African Thought & Conversation (IPATC) at the University of Johannesburg. She writes in her personal capacity.