Coalitions likely to be a permanent feature of local govt: CSIR

Coalition governments are likely to be a permanent feature of local government after the November 4th elections. This is according to the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) election prediction framework.

The CSIR uses a statistical model to predict election outcomes.

Professor Pravesh Debba says applying this model to some municipalities for the first time may produce a 2% margin of error.

The CSIR is once again collaborating with the SABC for this year’s local government polls.

The model relies on the analysis of voter behaviour patterns and sequences.

Professor Debba says, “By 5 o’clock in the morning, you know, we already have a prediction, and one can then start to judge. You know what is happening, and (where) coalitions need to start forming. So, it also gives the politicians an opportunity to start these discussions and so on, because they know, they’re also are aware that they are there are likely coalitions to happen, etc. So, that’s where our role can come play an important part with regards to that.”

– By Fushani Ralinala