Urban-rural voting reflects how the electorate reacts to challenges

Hlumelo Xaba

The voting patterns between South Africa’s rural and urban population not only serve as an indicator of where different political parties derive their support, but it also depicts how the electorate in these areas react to various socio-economic challenges.

South Africa’s rural areas are characterized by high levels of poverty, infrastructure underdevelopment, scarcity of economic opportunities, and poor service delivery.

Moreover, the education levels of the rural population are relatively low compared to those of people living in urban areas. Essentially, this implies that the urban electorate is more informed and awake to the socio-economic realities that the country is confronted with compared to the rural population. This contrast is a significant element in how these demographics respond to the government’s failures.

The Eastern Cape and Limpopo are an encapsulation of this phenomenon. Both these provinces are similar because of their rural architecture which translates to underdevelopment and poor basic service delivery.

Furthermore, most municipalities in these provinces are governed by the ANC with an outright majority. Contrarily, the ANC’s support in urbanized areas has declined excessively over the past 15 years.

Five out of the eight metropolitan municipalities are governed through coalition governments.

Not only does this signal the ANC’s declining popularity among the urban population, but it also illustrates how this cohort of the electorate responds differently to the government’s failures including the inadequate delivery of basic services such as electricity, water and sanitation, as well as road infrastructure.

The Alfred Ndzo District Municipality in the Eastern Cape is considered the most impoverished region in South Africa with over 90% of the population living below the poverty line. This District comprises a total of 106 wards with all of them under the control of the ANC.

This trend is widespread across many municipalities in Eastern Cape and Limpopo. The ANC came out of the 2021 Local Government Elections with an overwhelming majority in more than 90% of municipal councils in both provinces, despite the high levels of underdevelopment that are confronting local communities in these provinces.

The political landscape of urban areas is underpinned by intense political contestations and an electorate that is mostly comprised of educated professionals who are obligated to pay municipal rates.

This is a key feature in understanding the rationale behind the contradictory voting patterns of rural and urban voters. Most municipalities in rural provinces rely on the equitable share as a primary source of funding, meaning that municipalities have a limited revenue collection base from their residents compared to urban areas where the municipality leverages the collection of revenue from its residents.

This factor prompts the urban electorate to assess whether their vote translates to value for money based on whether the collective which they have elected fulfills their mandate once they enter office.

The ANC’s waning electoral support in the past 10 years across metropolitan municipalities can inter-alia be attributed to its inability to live up to its core mandate as a governing party in these areas.

This, coupled with the emergence of new political players, has provided the urban electorate with a variety of political alternatives which has consequently dismantled the one-party dominance of the ANC. Additionally,people living in urban areas have a different expectation in terms of how the quality of services like water and roads should be like compared to those in rural areas.

The Absence of a Visible Political Alternative in Rural Areas.

Part of what has contributed to one-party dominance despite a lack of improvement in the livelihoods of the residents in rural communities is the absence of a political alternative that is visible and strong enough to challenge the dominance of the ANC.

Most political parties tend to invest their resources in the metros where majority of the population is located. This has subsequently led to the ANC remaining unchallenged in rural areas and their dominance entrenched.

The electorate in these communities are often presented with limited options that leave them to maintain the same voting patterns yet those in the metros continue to evolve.